Abstract
No doubt that climatic development and related changes are not new,
bur a worldwide phenomenon that never respected
national boundaries. Their severe consequences and negative impacts have
touched most world countries; melting glaciers, deadly
typhoons, catastrophic hurricanes, brutal tornadoes, torrential rains,
harsh drought, continuous heat waves heavier precipitation,
frost, fluctuation of annual average temperatures, changing duration,
shifting seasons and disastrous floods are just a few of the
many forms of climate change consequences. There is no single world
country that was not seriously devastated by economic,
health, social and or environmental complications. All these shattering
consequences have urged most countries around the globe
to find mitigation measures, adaptation techniques and methods and put
this goal as a top priority of international conferences
and symposiums at the local, regional and international levels. The
notion “Act locally and think globally” has become the main
slogan for a collective action to ease the consequences of the climate
change. Needless to say, that huge efforts in awareness raising,
education, training, technology transfer and information use can make a
big difference, which have immense potentials to mitigate
the implications of climate change. It is in fact the only hope to face
the negative impacts of climate change.
Introduction
Climate change, as mentioned earlier, is an intricate global
environmental dilemma, which is unpredictable, controversial and
a never-ending predicament. It affects every single person on earth
and creature living on our planet. The fact that cannot be denied is
that the intricacy of the climate change dilemma lies in the absent
of appropriate understanding and/or justification of the reasons
behind its complications and developments. Hence, its worldwide
excessive impact, unpredictability, accelerating trends, tremendous
extreme influence, continuity and increasing complexity make the
situation even worse.
For decades, climate change implications have been affecting
not only agriculture, but also the economy, tourism, health, as well
as social and environmental aspects. Definitely, climate change
implications and their accelerating pace, combined with increased
global population and income growth will affect the overall food
situation [1]. Among the negative influence of climate change on
agriculture is the low yield and the bad quality of agricultural
products, which is obvious on all crops. Nobody doubt the fact
that the agricultural sector is the most affected by climate change
implications among all other sectors. Indeed, the sector is facing
enormous challenges, where extreme weather conditions and
events threaten the existence of humanity. The existence of new
insects, diseases and weeds, combined with shifting seasons
and shortening the growing seasons are among the most serious
upshots that we are witnessing daily. Within this context, it is
obvious that technology transfer is one of the best solutions to the
problem, where a growing recognition of its potential role as a major
response is increasing. With this fact agrees [2], where indicated
that mitigating climate change requires information, education,
and technology transfer. It is urgently needed by resource scarce
smallholders, who are the most affected by climate change, yet,
they contribute very little to the problem.
It is recognized worldwide that adaptation and mitigation
are the main two major areas needed by farmers to mitigate the
impact. For sure, diminishing the global climate change impacts
necessitate vast scientific knowledge, massive financial resources,
enormous physical capacities, huge logistical infrastructure, as
well as big technical and human resources. Today, more than ever
before, immense efforts and substantial awareness and attitude
change are needed urgently not only for Developing Countries
but Developed Countries as well. Hence, serious collective efforts
are needed by policy and decision makers, scientists of all fields,
academia, farm owners and farmers as well as all ordinary citizens.
Although huge efforts were made by scientists, but many still
believe that there is no quick and instant solution to the problem
and no universal remedy or a silver bullet that can stop, freeze,
limit or at least decrease the climate change impacts. What can ease
the problem is simply enforcing rules and regulations, policies and
recommendations parallel with reliance on technology transfer.
Definitely, determination and dedication are also of paramount
importance when financial and technical resources are available.
Certainly, reliance on generous regional and international support
and technical assistance are of great importance.
Worldwide Shocking Information
According to the World Bank [3], Asia is the most vulnerable
continent on earth. The report indicated that in 2009, over 60%
of Asian countries were affected by property damage from severe
natural disasters. The report also pointed out that since 1997, over
82% of all lives lost in disasters were in Asian countries. These
countries sustained the heaviest mortality rate from catastrophic
events related to climate change. In Asia, also six out of ten of the
most vulnerable cities in terms of exposed population. No doubt
that the magnitude of the problem, specifically in Asian countries,
is immeasurable. For an example, if no measures are considered
in Bangladesh, the expected damage from a single severe cyclone
increase fivefold to reach $9 billion by 2050. The same applies
for Vietnam’s Mekong River Delta, where the sea level will rise 30
cm by 2050. For an example, a reduction of rice production by 13
percent will occur when an increased deluge and salinity happen,
when over 300 thousand ha will be out of business. China, Vietnam,
Laos, The Philippines, Bangladesh, and many other countries are
no exception. About 130 million people are living along the coast
in low lying islands in China and facing unpredictable destiny due
to the enormous threat of cyclones and typhoons. 40 million in
Vietnam are expected to face the same danger. Generally speaking,
the poorest households are the most affected by the climate change
disasters [3]. According to the same source, 12 billion dollars were
the cost of the damaged lands, cities, river banks, etc. in the last
three decades alone, in the Middle East, and specifically in the Arab
world, temperatures are projected to rise 3-4 degrees Celsius by the
end on this century. The warmest year since 1800’s was 2010-11,
when heat wave records began [4] Indicated that heat waves with
maximum temperatures are very likely to become more frequent.
Drier and hotter conditions will cause fires to increase in scrub and
forest in Maghreb and eastern Mediterranean areas 19 countries
in the Middle east, including five Arab countries, set a new high
record. for an example, the temperature reached 53.5 degrees in
Kuwait, but expected to increase to 75 percent by 2050. This shows
that three out of four people might be affected in a way or another
in the Arab world [5] other forms of climate change will include,
but not limited to, an increase in severe weather events, such as
droughts and floods and greater seasonal temperature variability.
The report, which was produced in partnership with the League
of Arab States (LAS), warns that climate change implications pose
a big threat and a big challenge to the development goals of the
millennium. Jordan, for an example, the second poor country in
the world in terms of water resources will face food insecurity and
water insecurity due to sharp rainfall decrease with temperature
increase compounded with a growing population. According to
Dorte Verner, the Climate Change Coordinator for the Middle East
and North Africa at the World Bank, who gave an alarming signal to
the situation that the whole region will face an increased demands
for fresh water by 16-50% by 2050 and a 10% decrease in rainfalls
and the indicated that between 1980 and 2008 over 37 million Arab
people were affected and more than 20 billion dollars were lost
due to natural disasters [4]. Overt 55 million people are affected
annually by climate related disasters and the estimated damage
was $789 billion dollars. In Asia, about the same number of people
are affected annually by floods (57 million people), where around
86% of the reported damages are climate‐related disasters. At the
global level, 142 million people are affected annually by natural
disasters, of which 139 million people were affected by climate
related disasters. It is obvious from the facts mentioned above
that Asia and the Pacific, are the most affected by climate related
disasters. 70% of these countries are vulnerable to climate change
and disasters according to the UNU. Countries such as Vanuatu,
Tonga, Philippines, Solomon Islands, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, and
Cambodia are the most vulnerable countries in Asia and the Pacific.
The fact that cannot be denied is that agriculture, fisheries and
forestry are the main sectors affected by climate related disasters,
where 60% of the people depend largely on these sectors for find
living. The real cost of the damage has sky-rocketing numbers.
Between 600 billion to 1.5 trillion USD annually are needed to help
these countries. By 2025, The bank estimated that floods in these
countries will be threatening between 300 and 410 million people<
In some Pacific Islands, it is even much higher, 245-341 million
people.
The Scary Status
According to a report published by Karas J [6], it was pointed out
that the Mediterranean basin is not immune to the climate change
implications. Most North African and Eastern Mediterranean countries are the most to suffer from serious impacts of the climate
change combined with the desertification problems. At the same
time, the annual precipitation is projected to decline by 10-40%.
Temperatures could rise by over 4°C by the beginning of the next
century. On the other hand, the report also indicated that the
Mediterranean Sea levels could rise by 1 m by 2100 due to melting
glaciers and oceans’ expansion. As a result, rivers would become
saltier. Egypt, Italy and Greece could have the worst consequences,
specifically the Nile Delta, Venice and Thessaloniki respectively,
Sand storms and reduction in vegetation cover in northern Sahara
and Peri desert region will be increasing soil erosion, hence most
Arab countries will have to deal with not traditional environmental
threats, but severe, complicated, continuous and spreading
complications. Water scarcity will be so severe to the extent that
countries will fight each other over water. Some other problems,
such as biodiversity loss, desertification, pollution of marine and
coastal areas, air pollution and many others will be very common.
The Persian Gulf region is no exception. All six countries of
the council (GCC); Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE),
Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar are subject to suffer significant
ramifications from global warming. Bahrain and Qatar, where most
population live less than 5 meters above sea level are especially
susceptible to inland flooding due to the small land mass that is in
danger of being inundated as sea levels rise, Saudi Arabia, Oman
and the UAE are also rated “highly” vulnerable. Other countries of
the Middle East like Yemen, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya and Tunisia are
ranked among “extremely” vulnerable countries and score “high”
on the CCI index [7].
Water Crisis, Rising Temperatures, etc.
Most of the Arid and Semiarid Zones are suffering from a
chronic and even disastrous water problem. In Jordan, for an
example, the average per capita use is lower than any other country
in the world. It reaches 145 cubic meters per capita per year, a very
low number by all standards, if we take into consideration that
the United Nations classified countries with less than 500 cubic
meters per person per year as having an “absolute scarcity” of
water [8]. Karas J [6] regarding the increase of water shortages and
decline in water quality, pointed out that the first climate change
impacts will be felt first in the Mediterranean water resource
system, where reductions in water availability would hit southern
Mediterranean countries the hardest. Countries like Morocco,
Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Syria, Malta and the Lebanon will
be the most affected by the shortages and some water supplies
could become unusable due to salt penetration into rivers and
coastal aquifers as sea level rises combined with water pollution
which become more concentrated with reductions in river flow,
hence causing major health hazard in the region. Karas J [6] also
stated that across the Mediterranean region, yields of cereals and
other crops could decrease substantially due to the increased
frequency of drought, land losses through desertification, increased
competition for water and prevalence of pests and diseases. On the
other hand, by 2050 or earlier, North Africa and the Near East could
witness the disappearance of most of the steppe rangeland and its
transformation to desert. Food security could be also threatened
by the sharp fall in production, world prices for many commodities
such as maize, wheat, soybean and poultry could rise significantly
as a result of global climate changes. Livestock production would
suffer due to deterioration in the quality of rangeland. The
magnitude is so immense in most countries to the extent that
Egypt, for example, might lose agricultural production over an area
extending 20 km inland. In Tunisia, rising temperatures could lead
to the disappearance of nationally important fisheries, the loss of
all food plants and breeding waterfowl. The reductions in food and
fiber will cause malnutrition and hunger for millions of people.
Water shortages as well as damaged infrastructures would increase
the risk of cholera, malaria and dysentery, while the combination of
heat and pollution would increase the risk of respiratory illnesses,
extent of infectious diseases, dengue fever, while extreme weather
events could increase death and injury rates. Several valuable
ecosystems could be lost, wetland area will face the threat of
drying out. Other countries are not immune, where a 3 to 4°C rise
in temperatures will cause up to 85% of wetland sites in southern
Europe to disappear.
Not only Mediterranean countries loose substantially in
economic terms, the human and economic costs of desertification
increase would be tremendous. The annual costs of desertification
for Tunisia and Spain alone are $100 and $200 million respectively.
The magnitude of the climate change from the economic point of
view is so immense to the extent that another World Bank study
predicted that $75-100 billion a year, is the amount needed to adapt
to an approximately 2°C warmer world by 2050. Definitely, Asian
and Pacific countries will bear most of the cost. No doubt that those
poorer developing countries are affected excessively, and more
vulnerable than other countries to climate change implications, and
they are greatly devastated from the impacts of natural disasters.
This is due to a number of reasons. Probably their reliance on
climate sensitive sectors, particularly agriculture, their poor
infrastructure, geographic exposure to disasters, low incomes and
most importantly, their inability to stand firmly against disasters
because of lack of expertise, are the most serious factors.
Another frightening number was reported by IFRC and CRED
[9]. It indicated that, between 1990 -1999, around 200 climate
related disasters strike per year. Ten years later, around 350
climate related disasters on average per year happened. This is an
increase of about 75 percent from previous decade. During these
years, and according to the Asian Development Bank [10] the
climate related disasters affected more than 200 million people in
Asian and the Pacific countries, which compose about 90 percent
of world population affected by disasters. Within two years, and specifically during 2010-2011, around 42 million people were
displaced from extreme weather events. According to Nelson G et
al. [1], agriculture is the most vulnerable sector to climate change.
According to the same source, in 2005, over 50 percent of the
economically active population in developing countries, which is
close to 2.5 billion people, relied on agriculture as the main source
for their livelihoods. Today, this number has increased dramatically,
where three out of four people of the world’s poor live in rural areas.
The magnitude is so immense to the extent that at least $7 billion
in additional funds annually are needed to finance investments in
research, rural infrastructure and irrigation, to offset the negative
effects of climate change on human wellbeing. More bad news of
the climate change implications. Madhava S and Durwood Z [11],
for an example, believe that Developing Countries will need about
$200 billion annually by 2030 to bring about a 25 percent reduction
in global greenhouse gas emissions. No doubts that the lives of the
poorest and most venerable people are the most to be affected by
the climate change implications.
Severe Consequences
Since climate change is a worldwide phenomenon, it is believed
that most world countries will suffer in a way or another. At the
global level, the magnitude of the effect is various and immense to
the extent that an increase of just 2°C in the average temperature
will reduce world GDP by about 1 % as Stern [12] predicted. This
is a huge impact if we take into considerations the trillions of
dollars around the world that are circulating every year. Another
prediction of how immense the climate change is [13] stated, agreed
and supported the notion that the impact of the climate change is
substantial. For an example, India and Africa will face reductions
of agricultural output by 30 percent or more. As Nelson G et al.
[1] pointed out, agriculture, is extremely vulnerable to climate
change [1]. They stated that in 2005, over half of the population in
Developing Countries, which was estimated at 2.5 billion, relied on
agriculture for their livelihoods. Nowadays, according to the World
Bank [14], around 75 percent of world’s poor live in rural areas
and they are the most affected. According to a Food Policy Report,
agriculture and human wellbeing will be severely affected by one or
more of the following climate change implications; yield reduction,
price increase, decline of meat consumption, imbalance of supply
and demand, declining calorie availability, higher feed prices
for livestock, increase malnutrition and lower investments. As a
result, increase in death rates, unemployment will soar, and social
instability will be in jeopardy. The agricultural sector in particular
will be subject to some or all of the following implications due to
the climate change; appearance of new diseases, insects or weeds
not known before in the area, shortening growing seasons, not
completely ripen veggies or fruits with less vitamins, minerals or
other crucial ingredients.
Developing countries, as most researchers and analysts predict,
are the most to be affected, and specifically, South Asia, which will
be particularly hard hit by climate change implications. The fact
that cannot be denied is that the yield for the most important crops
will decline sharply due to the shifting seasons, rainfall variations,
shortening of seasons, higher temperatures, frequent frost and weed
and pest proliferation. In light of all these complex developments
that the world is facing, especially, Developing Countries, scientists
have no doubts that Developing Countries are more vulnerable
to climate change, and they will have less suitable climates for
agricultural practices. Most of these countries depend largely on
agriculture, they lack proper and adequate financial resources, have
weak infrastructure to respond properly to increased variability
and most importantly, they are facing all the implications of the
climate change alone. Definitely, rainfed areas as well as irrigated
regions will have varying effects on yields, specifically irrigated
crops in South Asia, which will experience large declines. It is well
known that when yields of the most important agricultural crops
(rice, wheat soybeans, maize, etc.) are affected, prices increase.
As a result, higher feed prices will result in higher meat prices,
hence causing the reduction of the growth in meat consumption.
Among the consequences that the sector is facing is the higher
temperatures, which eventually reduce yields of most crops while
encouraging pest and weed proliferation. The fact that the changes
in precipitation patterns, despite few gains in some crops in some
regions of the world, will show an increase of the likelihood of
short run crop failures and long-run production will decline. Most
researchers, analysts and environmentalists believe that the overall
impact of climate change on agriculture is expected to be negative,
and as a result, global food security is threatened.
The overall impact of climate change is unpredictable; however,
malnutrition will be a case that most developing countries will have
to face. According to Nelson G et al. [1] the 2050 will witness lower
calorie availability than in the no climate change scenario. The
decline will be even lower to 2000 levels throughout the developing
world. By the same year, the decline in calorie availability will
increase child malnutrition by at least 20 percent comparing to a
world with no climate change impact. Based on the mentioned facts,
the climate change will eliminate a great deal of the improvement
in child malnourishment levels that would occur with no climate
change. Thus, huge amounts of financial resources are needed to
cope with the various negative impact of the climate change. For an
example, the large agricultural productivity investments of about
USD 7.1-7.3 billion are urgently needed more than ever before to
raise calorie consumption enough to offset the negative impacts of
climate change on the health and well-being of children [1].
The Solution Technology Transfer Can Make the Difference
Certainly, technology transfer will never be able to solve the
whole problem of the climate change implications, but definitely it
can make a big difference. There are a number of recommendations that
were suggested by the Food Policy Report, presented by IFRPI
[1] which give a high concern for a number of measures to combat
the negative impact of the climate change. Technology transfer
was among the main parts of the recommendations. The group of
scientists and scholars gave technology transfer a crucial role in the
adaptation process. They include reviving national research and
extension programs in each country. The recommendations call for
heavy investments in laboratory scientists and infrastructure as
well as partnerships with other national and international centers.
The important aspect in the recommendations urge for a strong
collaboration with local farmers, traders, input suppliers, consumer
groups and other stakeholders as an essential and effective
measures for the development and dissemination of appropriate,
cost-effective techniques that will help strengthen communication
among all involved groups (scientists, extension agents, farmers,
etc. to meet the challenges of climate change.
Another vital recommendation of the report calls for agricultural
adaptation as a key agenda point in international climate meetings,
conferences and symposiums. This should allow governments and
other organizations to advance proposals for practical actions
on adaptation in agriculture. The report also advocates for the
recognition of enhanced food security as a major partner of climate
change adaptation. Needless to say, that climate change will pose
huge challenges to food security efforts and any activity in the
direction of supporting agricultural adaptation will definitely
enhance food security. The increased food security measures will
assist the rural poor with the needed resources that will help
them adapt to climate change. Supporting communitybased
adaptation strategies are also of great importance. The need
is urgent for national and international development agencies
to ensure that all financial, technical as well as capacity-building
measures target local communities. Community participation in the
national adaptation planning processes is a must. Community-based
adaptation strategies can make all the difference in assisting rural
communities strengthen their capacities to cope with disasters.
Such groups are encouraged to diversify their livelihoods, improve
land-management skills, coordinate with all involved partners and
fully adapt national policies and strategies.
Another crucial factor that must be considered is the increase
of funding for adaptation programs. It is estimated, according to the
same report, that at least seven billion dollars are needed per year.
Another seven billion dollars per year are also required to finance
rural infrastructure, research and irrigation systems to offset the
negative implications of climate change on human wellbeing.
Extension programs can play a strategic role in information sharing
through the transfer of new technologies and techniques, capacity
building, teaching improved management systems; facilitate
cooperation and interaction and encouraging the establishment
of farmers’ networks. Specific services to mitigate climate change
should include, but not limited to, disseminating local cultivars of
drought-resistant crop varieties, improve global data collection,
dissemination, and their analysis. Any global efforts to collect and
disseminate data among all involved parties must be strengthened.
The fact that cannot be denied is that successful development
and the effective diffusion of the latest technologies in agriculture
will shape the way farmers mitigate and adapt to climate change.
Certainly, regular and continuous observations of unusual events
are of paramount importance. They must be recorded, analyzed,
disseminated and considered. If technology transfer is to be
successful, then it must meet local needs and priorities. Willingness
of the people to understand the new developments, act, make the
desired change needed and create a difference are important to
consider. Without doubt, when priorities are set, economic and
physical capabilities are convened, and social and psychological
conditions are regarded, then the impact of technology transfer can
be doubled.
In reality, and in order to speed TT, the six factors (categories);
economic social, environmental, political, perception and attitudes,
and regulatory factors are all of immense importance. None of
the above factors are less or more important than the others
and neither can be ignored nor eliminated. Funds are needed to
support education, Research and Development (R&D), extension
and purchase of technologies. On the other hand, social factors are
prerequisite for a successful technology transfer process. This can
speed, slow and even stop the process the more a nation is open to
the world, the faster the technology transfer can be disseminated,
especially if they don’t stand against the culture, norms and
traditions. Political aspects are seen and noticed in faster TT.
Completely unwanted results might be seen if they are ignored
[15]. Meeting the needs and priorities of the local people must
have high level of acceptance, active participation as well as strong
willingness to adopt, otherwise all the efforts are in jeopardy.
Concluding remarks
a. Huge financial support, social participation and
interaction, political interference, environmental awareness,
strong involvement by policy responses as well as a new set of
policy instruments for decision making are needed more than
ever before. All these and many others are needed to improve
our disaster risk reduction capacity
b. Effective partnership between research centers and
technology seekers is a must. The three pillars; farmers,
extension agents and researchers must closely work to test and
promote new crop varieties, as well as to teach management
measures [2].
c. A major strategic element in supporting agriculture’s role
is information. The three pillars of mitigation are information,
education, and technology transfer.
d. Agricultural extension in its forms; public and private,
as well as advisory services can play a significant role in
providing farmers with the needed information, education
and technologies, on how to cope with climate change through
adaptation and mitigation measures.
e. Extension systems can help farmers deal with climate
change through adaptation and contingency measures that deal
with what cannot be prevented.
f. Extension systems can assist farmers and preparing them
for greater climate variability and uncertainty, especially in
providing advice on how to deal with new insects, weeds and
diseases, dealing with droughts and avoiding floods.
g. Extension staff can help farmers with knowledge, proper
practices and management systems that are resilient to climate
change implications such as no till (Zero Tillage), sequential
cropping, intercropping, etc.
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