Monday 24 September 2018

Climate Change Adaptation Considerations for Agriculture for North-East Iraq: (CIACR) - Lupine Publishers

Analysis of climatic data of the last three decades reveals that there is a noticeable shift in climate and water resources regime of north-east Iraq. Analysis was done on the five major tributaries of Tigris River-Khabur, Greater Zab, Lesser Zab, Al-Adhiam and Diyala rivers. At first glance, the region appears to have plenty of freshwater, but due to high temporal and spatial variability combined with inadequate infrastructure, water scarcity is widespread. Agriculture is the primary user of freshwater, and therefore, any adverse effect on water availability will have far reaching consequences. For forecasting purposes, SWAT model was chosen for simulation and GCM ensembles were used for long-range forecasts. The paper explores how the population are adjusting to the shift in climate regime and what kinds of climate change adaptation measures are socio-culturally viable. The analysis framework featured separation of freshwater availability into blue and green waters, climate forecasts with a lead time of about half-a-century to 2049-2069 and about one-century to 2080-2099, and feedback from grass-root level of the government and focus groups as to how the population are adjusting and likely to adjust in the future to climate change.

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