Model Development for Life Cycle Assessment of Rice Yellow Stem Borer under Rising Temperature Scenarios by N Kalra in Current Investigations in Agriculture and Current Research in Lupine Publishers
A simple model was developed using Fortran Simulation Translator to
study the influence of increased temperature on duration of
various life cycle phases of yellow stem borer (YSB) in Bangladesh
environment. Model was primarily based on Growing Degree
Day concept, by also including cardinal temperatures sensitive for
specific growing stages of YSB. After successful calibration and
validation of the model, it was taken for climate change (only
temperature rise considered in the present study) impact analysis
on the growing cycle of YSB. Temperature increase values of 1, 2, 3 and 4
oC were considered and compared with the Control
(no temperature rise), by using historic weather of representative
locations in eight Divisions of Bangladesh. Differential spatial
response in the life cycle of YSB under various temperature rise
treatments was noticed, and in general the growing cycle hastened
with the rising temperature. The life cycle of YSB is likely to be
reduced by about 2 days for every degree celcius rise in temperature,
while averaged over locations. This means that there will be 2.0-2.5
additional generations of YSB in pre-monsoon season about
2.9-3.2 in wet season of Bangladesh. There is a need to include the
phenology module developed in subsequent design of population
dynamics model for YSB.
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